INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT May 23, 2009
Onset of southwest monsoon 2009 over Kerala
The following conditions are observed today:
In view of strong cross equatorial flow and extension of its depth upto mid-tropospheric levels, persistent convection over Arabian Sea and adjoining peninsular India and Bay of Bengal and widespread rainfall activity over south Kerala for the last 4 days, India Meteorological Department declares onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala today, the 23rd May 2009.
Northern Limit of Monsoon
Southwest monsoon has further advanced today, the 23rd May 2009, over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu, most parts of south-west & east-central Bay of Bengal and some parts of west-central & north-east Bay of Bengal. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through Lat 10.0ºN/ Long 60.0ºE, Lat 10.0ºN/ Long 70.0ºE, Kochi, Madurai, Lat 13.0ºN/ Long 83.0ºE, Lat 16.0ºN/ Long 88.0ºE and Lat 20.0ºN/ Long 93.0ºE.
Current scenario
Current meteorological analysis and interpretation of various Numerical Weather Prediction models indicates further Increase of pressure gradient and strengthening & deepening of cross equatorial flow over Bay of Bengal. The depression currently lying over east-central Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a nearly northerly direction towards West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during next 72 hours.
Forecast for next 48 hours
Under these conditions, southwest monsoon is likely to further advance over some more parts of central & north Bay of Bengal, northeastern states and Gangetic West Bengal.
Date: MAY 23, 2009
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AT A FEW PLACES WITH ISOLATED EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND NORTH ORISSA FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONWARDS. ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN STATES FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS AND LAKSHDWEEP DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. GAIL WIND SPEED REACHING 65 – 70 KMPH GUSTING TO 85 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL COAST FROM TOMORROW, THE 24TH EVENING. SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 45-55 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF NORTH ORISSA COAST FROM TOMORROW THE 24TH EVENING. SEA CONDITION WILL BE HIGH ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL COAST AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF ORISSA COASTS. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL AND ORISSA COASTS
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