The cyclonic storm “AILA”

Cyclone Aila moves slightly
Sun, May 24th, 2009 11:21 pm BdST Dial 2324 from your mobile for latest news

Dhaka, May 24 (bdnews24.com)—The cyclonic storm "Aila" over north Bay and adjoining west Central Bay moved slightly northwards over the same area, the Meteorological Department said.

It was centred at 9pm on Sunday about 540 kms southwest of Chittagong port, 485 kms southwest of Cox's Bazar port and 430 kms south-southwest of Mongla port.
It is likely to intensify further and more in a northerly direction and cross West Bengal-Khulna coast by noon on Monday.

The low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Barisal, Pirojpur, Jhalokathi, Laxmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chandpur, Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, and three offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by wind-driven surge of five to seven feet above normal astronomical tide.

Maximum sustained wind speed within 54 km of the storm centre is about 60 kph rising to 70 kph in gusts. Sea will remain rough.

Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and Mongla ports have been advised to hoist local warning signal number four.

All fishing boats and trawlers over north Bay have been advised to remain in shelter until further notice.

Rain or thundershowers accompanied by temporary gusty to squally wind is likely to occur at many places over Barisal, Khulna and Chittagong divisions and at one or two places over Rajshahi, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions with moderately heavy rainfalls at places over Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong divisions.

A mild heat wave over Rajshahi division may continue.

Day temperature may fall slightly across the country.

River traffic halted

The Inclement weather has forced suspension of ferry movement from 8am on all rivers routes, said Patuakhali river port official Md Shahidul Mia.

Fishermen are coming back from the sea because of high tide, said general secretary of fish traders committee Nimai Chandra from Kuakata.

The rivers in the costal areas are flowing in high tide because of the depression in the bay, said Ahsan Azim from Charkajal.

It has been raining sporadically in the coastal areas of Patuakhali from Saturday midnight.

Barguna wary

The people of the coastal southern district of Barguna, hit by cyclone Sidr in late 2007, are living in constant fear on the news that a depression in the Bay of Bengal has deepened and still intensifying.

It has been raining sporadically from Saturday midnight and the sun has remained behind the clouds.

Hundreds of fishing trawlers haves returned to Pathorghata, Noli and Taltoli from the Bay until Sunday afternoon, said president of Barguna District Trawler Owners' Association Golam Mostafa Chowdhury.

"We will start calling people to shelter buildings through megaphones as soon as the level of the signal is increased," said the team leader of cyclone preparation activities and member of Borguna Red Crescent Unit Zakir Hossain Miraj.

bdnews24.com/corrs/dgh/wz/bd/2239h.

Bay storm intensifies, prepares for landfall












Vinson Kurian


Thiruvananthapuram, May 24 Saturday’s depression over west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal moved north, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred about 350 km southeast of Paradip on Sunday afternoon.

The system is just a gust away from being a named cyclone (‘Aila’ as per protocol) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) kept it under close watch. US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre too maintained a cyclone watch in the Bay.

CROSS-OVER


The IMD expected the would-be cyclone to move in a near northerly direction and cross the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast by Monday evening. International models estimate that it would have attained Category-2 strength prior to landfall.

The IMD has said that heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls (above 25 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Orissa over the next two days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast over the north eastern States as well.

Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep. Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr is likely along and off West Bengal coast. Squally wind speeds reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr are likely along and off north Orissa coasts.

Sea condition will be ‘high’ along and off West Bengal coast and ‘rough to very rough’ along and off Orissa coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture out.

NORTHERN LIMIT


Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon has not progressed beyond the Kochi-Madurai alignment where it was traced to on Saturday.

This is so since most of the activity has been concentrated around the Bay storm, with moisture available with the core monsoon flow being funnelled into the system.

The pattern will largely hold until a few days after the landfall. International models suggest some activity being triggered in the southwest Bay as also in west and west-central Arabian Sea later this week.

This is basically being traced do ‘burning embers’ of isolated pools of extreme convection left behind in both the peninsular seas.

FRESH SYSTEMS


The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) at the US National Weather Services suspects that the already churned Bay may be readying to host another weather system, though not as strong as the immediate predecessor.

Active convection, anticipated anomalous westerly flows and areas of low vertical wind shear and above average sea-surface temperatures would combine to provide a perfect background.

The activity would culminate in a flourish over the southern Myanmar coast