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Bay storm may spare India, head to Myanmar

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, April 3

Thunder squalls will punctuate weather in the Northeast for at least five more days even as satellites scanning the Bay of Bengal yielded more information on evolving stormy weather in the basin.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said the Northeastern States would continue to witness isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers accompanied by thunder squall during the next five days.

Thundershowers with thunder squall are also likely over Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next three days.

RUB-OFF IMPACT

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services says that the seasonally disturbed weather would last in varying intensity at least until April 16 to rub off some impact on the Bay.

International models agree that the warmer-than-average waters of the Equatorial Indian Ocean would help throw up a causative `low' just to the south of Sri Lanka around April 10.

Early signals suggest that the system may track to southwest Bay of Bengal and later into the Andaman Sea. Here, the system is shown to intensify into a depression, even a cyclone.

An itinerant westerly trough busy setting up the weather over East and Northeast India would have just dipped down to scoop up the system from the Bay. It would later be taken to the Myanmar-Thailand border for a landfall.

TO SPARE INDIA

The suggested trajectory would rule out any significant impact for coastal India other than a wave of rainfall for Kerala, southern Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during system formation and propagation.

Coincidentally, a moderately strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is forecast to pass by from West Africa to Southwest and Equatorial Indian Ocean.

This periodical west-to-east travelling wave with alternating wet and dry phases has been known to amplify weather over regions under its footprint, although monsoons hold on their own without.

In the instant case, the wet phase of the MJO wave is expected to help sustain and scale up the stormy weather over Indian Ocean and later in the Bay of Bengal.

ENHANCED PHASE

The CPC has observed that the April 7-13 week may see an increased chance of above normal rainfall for Central Africa extending through Equatorial Indian Ocean. Excess rainfall is expected in this region due to the enhanced MJO phase.

The threat of cyclone development may increase in the Mozambique Channel and Southwest Indian Ocean as the enhanced MJP phase shifts to Equatorial Indian Ocean where sea-surface temperatures remain above average.

FRESH WESTERLY

Meanwhile, a fresh western disturbance is likely to cause isolated to scattered precipitation over western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of Northwest India for four days from Sunday.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at few places over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours and at isolated places from Sunday onwards.

Heat wave conditions continued to prevail over some parts of Saurashtra and Kutch even as Brahmapuri and Akola in Central India recorded a daytime maximum of 43 deg Celsius on Friday.

Isolated thunderstorm is likely over South Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Gujarat. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms are likely over Rajasthan during the next 24 hours.

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http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/04/04/stories/2009040450270901.htm